CBI director general Carolyn Fairbairn has warned that the UK leaving the EU could mean the return of “significant barriers to trade” and stated that “none of the alternative options” offer the same access to (and influence over) the EU single market as full EU membership.
Comprehensive CBI/PwC analysis results were delivered by Fairbairn as part of a major lecture given at the London Business School.
The analysis models two different scenarios for a Brexit. First, a highly optimistic ‘Free Trade Agreement scenario’ wherein the UK signs a quick trade deal with the European Union (EU), keeps all of its existing trade deals with third party countries and signs a rapid trade deal with the United States.
Second, a less optimistic mid-range ‘World Trade Organisation scenario’ where the UK trades under WTO rules, but is able to renegotiate trade deals with third party countries over the coming years.